RESEARCH - Speeding is Best Predictor of Crash Risk
The University of Waterloo has identified speed as the best predictor of crashes after analyzing data from onboard devices in vehicles. The research examined four aggressive driving behaviours, speeding, hard braking, hard acceleration and hard cornering for possible links and the likelihood of crashes. Of the four, only speed was statistically significant as a strong predictor of crashes.
From the article's abstract:
Usage-based insurance schemes provide new opportunities for insurers to accurately price and manage risk. These schemes have the potential to better identify risky drivers which not only allows insurance compa- nies to better price their products but it allows drivers to modify their behaviour to make roads safer and driving more efficient. However, for Usage-based insurance products, we need to better understand how driver behaviours influence the risk of a crash or an insurance claim. In this ar- ticle, we present our analysis of automotive telematics data from over 28 million trips. We use a case control methodology to study the rela- tionship between crash drivers and crash-free drivers and introduce an innovative method for determining control (crash-free) drivers. We fit a logistic regression model to our data and found that speeding was the most important driver behaviour linking driver behaviour to crash risk.